‘Surprising upside’ possible from FuelEU

Hamburg-based OceanScore has emphasised to shipowners that unlike some other decarbonisation measures introduced recently, FuelEU Maritime actually offers the potential to generate a net financial gain of potentially as much as EUR 250 million across the industry.

The consultancy’s analysis estimates that the compliance deficit – the amount by which shipping’s greenhouse gas emissions exceed the IMO’s target – is estimated at about 2.1 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent. More efficient ships emitting less carbon dioxide, on the other hand, may generate a surplus of about 1.3 million tonnes.

The net compliance gap, OceanScore says, is likely to be closed by using biofuels. These have a lower calorific value and are more expensive, but offer the advantage of emission reduction credits and corresponding savings under the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS).

Factoring in the ETS phase-in rate of 70% and covering the compliance gap with biofuels is expected to cost the shipping industry EUR 200 million, or EUR 230 per tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent.

However, on the other side of the equation, shipping sectors including container, ferry and cruise segments, accounting for close to 50% of emissions, are passing on the cost of emissions, linking them to FuelEU penalty levels.

OceanScore’s model assumes that just half of operators apply surcharges at two-thirds of the penalty rate, which equates to about EUR 640 per tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent, generating additional revenue of EUR 450 million. The figure, less the cost of compliance deficits, leaves a net gain of EUR 250 million.

Albrecht Grell, OceanScore managing director, declared: “Whether you’re a charterer, an owner, or a manager, this is a moment to get ahead of the curve. The costs are manageable, and the opportunity is real – but only if you’re prepared.”