OceanScore reveals EU ETS impact on Asian owners
Asian shipping companies face significant emissions cost exposure from the EU ETS (Illustration: OceanScore)
The EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) is likely to cost Asian owners about EUR 500 million this year, according to Hamburg-based maritime technology firm, OceanScore.
Since the beginning of January, shipowners trading to, from, or within Europe have become liable for 40% of their ships’ carbon emissions and will have to surrender EU Allowances (EUAs) equivalent to this by September 2025.
This will increase sharply next January, rising to 70% of emissions, with EUAs to be surrendered by September 2026. One year later, the requirement will rise to 100%. By that time, OceanScore estimates that the bill for Asian owners will have risen to more than EUR 1 billion. Voyages to and from the EU are liable for 50% of emissions; port calls and voyages within the EU are liable for 100%.
Around 4,000 Asian-flagged vessels are likely to be hit by the new emissions tax, OceanScore said, equivalent to about a third of the total 12,500 cargo and passenger ships of more than 5,000gt that will be affected by the new regulations. The Asian ships are operated by about 400 Document of Compliance holders.
The cost of meeting the new regulations will rise further. OceanScore’s estimate of more than EUR 1 billion from 2026 is based on the relatively low carbon price of EUR 55 per tonne of carbon dioxide that prevails today. But carbon prices are volatile and fluctuated between EUR 80 and EUR 100 last year.
Furthermore, the volume of EUAs available for trading will be gradually reduced over time to create greater incentives for owners and operators to cut their ships’ emissions.
Long-haul voyages into the EU can be broken up by an intermediate port call outside the bloc, although there are strict restrictions on such arrangements. In any case, OceanScore’s co-managing director, Albrecht Grell said that there is little evidence of this so far owing to the negative impact on fuel costs, waiting times, additional sailing distances, and other inefficiencies.
OceanScore is providing service support to both EU and non-EU shipping companies in the setting up of the necessary administrative systems for EU ETS management. The system operates on its web-based ETS Manager which provides comprehensive support for the management and trading of EUAs.
