Latest transport data points to stagnating growth
EU27 and United States external trade by sea: recovery is still weak and volumes are still below their pre-crisis levels
The International Transport Forum is an intergovernmental organisation linked to the OECD, a strategic think tank for the transport sector. Each year, it brings together Ministers from over 50 countries, along with leading decision-makers and actors from the private sector, civil society and research, to address transport issues of strategic importance.
In road, rail, and sea transport, current freight levels are below pre-crisis volumes by 5 to 10%. The recovery is uncertain in the sense that the rate of growth slows down and turns negative in some segments (e.g. US external trade by air and sea) in September of 2010.
Data on international air and sea cargo volumes for September 2010 show that trade related air freight transport has recovered in both the EU and the United States. However, for total imports and exports by sea, recovery is still weak and volumes are still below their pre-crisis levels (EU27 -6%; USA -7%) measured in tons of goods carried, according to preliminary estimates (Figure 1).
The trend for US external trade by sea turned downwards in September 2010 for the first time since the recovery started. Imports from China in particular have been falling in the United States both for air and sea. Data for EU27 are less gloomy, although the trend shows signs of slower growth, especially for goods carried by sea.
As for more regionally directed freight transport, rail volume in the EU area fell by 25% during the crisis, measured by seasonally adjusted data on ton-kilometers performed. The impact of the crisis on rail freight in the United States and Russia was similar in magnitude; ton-km fell 21% and 18% respectively. The volume of rail freight in the second quarter of 2010 is still around 15% below the pre-crisis level in the EU area, while in the United States and Russia volumes are 8% and 9% respectively below pre-crisis levels. Recovery in road freight has been significantly slower than in other modes. The peak-to-trough fall in road freight volume was around 16% in the EU area. In the second quarter of 2010, the volume was still around 15% below the pre-crisis peak, according to seasonally adjusted data on ton-kilometers carried.
