DNV launches latest Maritime Forecast to 2050
Competition from other sectors on access to green fuels means that shipping’s 2030 emission targets hang in the balance, according to DNV. In the latest edition of its Maritime Forecast to 2050, which was just launched, the classification society warns that shipping faces a challenge in securing sufficient supplies of carbon-neutral fuels. Owners must focus beyond fuels to assess other energy efficiencies and emission reduction options.
Increasing regulatory pressure to decarbonise, including stricter targets set by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) this July, means the shipping industry now needs to achieve a 20% reduction in emissions by 2030 and net-zero emissions by or around 2050. To meet the anticipated demand of 17 million tonnes of oil equivalent (mtoe) annually by 2030, the maritime sector needs to access a staggering 30-40% of the projected worldwide carbon-neutral fuel supply, DNV said.
Eirik Ovrum, principal consultant and lead author, commented: “Our latest report outlines several energy efficiency measures that can deliver decarbonisation results now. It emphasises the need for the maritime sector to adopt a holistic approach to ensure a strong evolution of regulations and technologies, as well as long-term security of fuel supply.”
The report presents an updated look at a range of regulations and drivers for shipping decarbonisation, the most important being new IMO regulations, the inclusion of shipping in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme and incoming well-to-wake requirements. These regulations will increase the operational cost of using carbon fuels, incentivising shipowners to put plans in place today to reduce their carbon output.
Knut Ørbeck-Nilssen, CEO DNV Maritime, said: “The 2020s marks the decisive decade for shipping. Securing greener fuel supply is critical. However, focusing on fuels alone can distract us from making an impact this decade and ambitious future declarations are not good enough. What we need is tangible actions that will reduce emissions. Energy efficiency measures can deliver decarbonisation results now and towards 2030.”
To overcome the challenges, the sector can adopt operational energy efficiency measures such as air lubrication systems and wind assisted propulsion. The latter has already been installed on 28 large vessels, delivering fuel savings of between 5-9% to date. The potential when retrofitted on existing ships can reach 25%.
In addition, technologies such as on-board carbon capture and storage and nuclear propulsion can address the competition for sustainable biomass and renewable electricity. The report presents an economic analysis of both options through detailed case studies which help informed decision-making around these technologies.
