Energy trades face further disruption as Mid East tensions spread

Despite a slight improvement in tanker transits through the Strait of Hormuz in recent days, analysts are warning of further disruption in the Red Sea if Houthi rebels proceed with their threat to close the Bab al-Mandeb Strait which links the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden.

Clarkson reports that Saudi exports from the Red Sea port of Yanbu have increased five-fold to about five million barrels a day, with an estimated 35 VLCCs waiting or underway towards the oil port. These oil supplies would stop if Red Sea transits are halted.

Meanwhile Strait of Hormuz transits are still down by 95% on pre-conflict levels, Clarkson said on Monday. Only 13 oil tankers carrying an estimated 14 million barrels of oil navigated the Strait in the seven previous days.

Excluding locally trading vessels, there are about 1,100 ships currently stranded inside the Gulf. They include some 300 tankers – 6% of the fleet and 8% of the VLCC fleet – as well as 3% of product tankers and 3% of very large gas carriers. About 1% of dry bulk tonnage and a similar volume of container ships are also stuck there.