Europe to lead offshore wind growth

Europe will play a crucial role in offshore wind expansion between now and 2040 when global installations, excluding mainland China, are expected to reach a capacity of 520 GW, up from less than 80 GW today. Recent analysis from Oslo-based Rystad Energy indicates that the UK, Germany and the Netherlands will be the three leading nations, with proximity to the North Sea, installation targets, net-zero aims, and extensive maritime areas underpinning substantial growth.

Europe will also lead development in the floating wind sector where technology is still at an early stage. By 2040, the continent is expected to account for more than 70% of floating wind installations. By that time, floating wind capacity is expected to reach 90 GW, with the UK, France, and Portugal leading the way.

The offshore wind sector faces challenges, however, in both its fixed and floating developments. These include recent inflationary pressures, postponed permitting procedures, and supply chain disruption. Despite these hurdles, however, capacity growth in 2023 still reached about 7%, and is likely to rise to 9% this year, Rystad said.

Installed floating capacity of less than one gigawatt so far will grow significantly over the balance of this decade. Between 2025 and 2030, Rystad expects Asia, excluding mainland China, and Europe to install 7 MW of capacity – around 2 MW in Asia, and 5 MW in Europe.

Rystad’s senior analyst, Offshore Wind, Petra Manuel, said: “The global offshore wind sector is experiencing robust growth, fuelled by increased investment and auction activity. However, supply chain bottlenecks present significant challenges to the industry’s further expansion. While ambitious targets boost investor confidence, it is crucial to address logistical issues to ensure that offshore wind can successfully take a key role in the energy transition. This will not only help the technology mature, but also foster a supportive ecosystem that inspires investor reliance.”